Modeling the Revenue Hidden in an Evaluation Pipeline

The Challenge

The team could only show investors very small revenue from product evaluations. They needed to credibly paint a picture of the revenue streams that could realistically emerge from that evaluation activity — across five distinct product lines, custom development projects, and sporadic but potentially large clinical diagnostic conversions.

What I Did

• Mapped five distinct products aimed at different market segments, each with its own growth and adoption curves, into a single integrated revenue model.
• Modeled custom development projects that yielded new control sequences for inventory and product development — capturing how these triggered growth in both price and adoption over time.
• Built a simulation to model the sporadic but high-value conversions from R&D evaluation sales into clinical diagnostic use — where a fraction of evaluation customers convert to dramatically larger unit volumes. A standard forecast would either ignore these or wildly overstate them; the simulation modeled them probabilistically.
• Designed the model from the start to be handed off: clearly documented assumptions, modular structure, and a logic the team could follow, update, and present to investors independently.

Outcome

The model gave the team a credible, detailed picture of where their revenue could go — grounded in the evaluation activity they already had. It became their primary tool for investor conversations and internal planning, structured to be updated by the team as their pipeline evolved.